Epidemiological model of ART impact

The model of the effects of ARTs in affected AIDS communities was interesting. While it reaches some possibly previously know conclusions, there are a few new observations. First of all, as complex as this model was because it tried to incorporate as many possible dynamics that play a role in how ARTS and HIV affect the community but we have to remember that many assumptions were made to fit the model, some that may not be accurate but were the best fit. And we also have to take into consideration that some other dynamics, such as counseling along with therapy were not taken into account because of the complexity.

Yet, I think these models make sense, they are pessimistic because it seems like HIV infections will soon if they haven’t already start to increase due to ineffective or failed ARTs. Figure 2 was especially disturbing and is counterintuitive because while these ARTs are increasing everyone’s hope in the very deem possibility of curbing the epidemic at some point in the future, we see a significantly increased number of infections possibly as a result of ART and the effects it has on the patients. These effects being the patient’s naïve assumption that being on ART treatment, they can resume or continue their sexual behavior and other things. However, I am curious to see how accurate these models because its always difficult to apply numbers to such a situation especially that its a medical situation and is even more unpredictable.

These results would be really pessimistic if all the dynamics that go into HIV/AIDS prevention had been incorporated but this only considers ARTs so bottom line as the authors said is that ARTs cannot prevent HIV infections in resource poor countries. They might in industrious nations were the virus is diagnosed early in its stages before the immune system CD4 cell count has dropped below 200 cells/uL but that is not the case for resource constricted nations were the cases are diagnosed when the virus has already matured in the body. It would be interesting to see what the curves look like if other dynamics were incorporated such as counseling services, use of condoms, and possible even education.