Is Zimbabwe's HIV Incidence Really Declining?

10/20 Post
Katie Nelson
When I first read this article, which stated that behavior change, such as wearing condoms, later sexual debuts, and fewer sexual partners, caused declining HIV prevalence in Zimbabwe, I was excited. Then I read the final paragraph, where Gregson talks about Zimbabwe's "well-educated population...good communications...and health service infrastructure", and saw that this article was published in 2006. Zimbabwe's political and economic situation has been in decline since the 1990s, but has only reached crisis proportions in the last five years. I worry that the results published in this paper are no longer accurate in the context of current events in Zimbabwe. In late 2005, President Robert Mugabe initiated a crackdown on illegal trade and slums, forcibly removing people from their homes and leaving much of Zimbabwe's urban poor homeless. A subset of the population already predisposed to a high incidence of HIV infection, removing them from the political and social infrastructure has contributed to current health crises, as well as disrupting the ARV treatment of some already living with AIDS. Additionally, more displaced women are now turning towards work in the sex trade in order to make a living. Additionally, can figures stating that HIV prevalence is on the decline in Zimbabwe now be trusted, now that it many people are now homeless, and no longer able to be surveyed, or have now died due to lack of treatment?

2008 saw a massive cholera epidemic affecting nearly a hundred thousand people, due to the near-collapse of Zimbabwe's health and sanitation systems. Because of severe inflation and a lack of government support, there is a dangerous shortage of healthcare professionals in Zimbabwe. Hyperinflation has caused four major hospitals to shut down and intense shortages in necessary drugs and supplies. Additionally, chronic food shortages mean that people already suffering from AIDS are more vulnerable to opportunistic infections in their malnourished states, and some studies suggest that ARV treatment is less effective in under-nourished people.